Adam Pankratz: BC United killed its electoral chances by rejecting conservatism (2024)

There are those who believe that, with no more Ringling Brothers or P.T. Barnum around, the circus is dead. These people have clearly never cast their gaze in the direction of British Columbia politics, where every day brings forth new highwire acts, clowns and exotic animals.

The most recent attraction is the spectacular collapse of BC United and the meteoric rise of the BC Conservatives, who are now polling in a statistical dead heat with the NDP. The dynamic has convulsed B.C. politics and raised the possibility of a merger with BC United or a confrontation with the NDP, but either way, the provincial election in October is shaping up to be a showdown almost no one saw coming.

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First, a brief history how we got here.

BC United was known as the BC Liberal Party, until the name was changed about a year ago. The BC Liberals, a coalition of federal conservatives and blue liberals, had been in government from 2001 to 2017 and indeed won a plurality of seats in 2017. However, they ultimately lost the legislature, as the Green Party supported the NDP to form government. The BC Liberal fall was then quick: in 2020, John Horgan and the NDP wiped the floor with them, securing a strong majority.

Cue political soul-searching for the BC Liberals. A new leader in former finance minister Kevin Falcon and a rebrand to “BC United” was the chosen path.

Now, what about the BC Conservatives during that time? Well, with all due respect to any BC Conservatives out there, until literally a few months ago, their party was more or less a joke — just peruse B.C.’s election results for the last 20 years to see why. The high-water mark for the BC Conservatives’ share of the popular vote was 4.75 per cent in 2013, and in most years they did not break two per cent. In total, the BC Conservative Party has won zero seats since 2001 — fewer than Independent candidates.

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Yet, it is the BC Conservatives are essentially tied with NDP, with BC United languishing a distant third, barely ahead of the BC Green party. What is going on?

BC United’s decline and the BC Conservatives’ rise can be linked to three key moments wherein the former jettisoned conservative values and stances for popular virtue signalling. Times change.

In 2021, the then-BC Liberals had a leadership race. One man who hoped to join the running was journalist and filmmaker Aaron Gunn. Now, the outspoken and unapologetically conservative Gunn may not be everyone’s cup of tea. He has long made his views known — even when doing so wasn’t a common trend in society. His candidacy was ultimately rejected for views deemed “inconsistent with the B.C. Liberal Party’s commitment to reconciliation, diversity and acceptance of all British Columbians.”

However, Gunn has since been recruited as a star candidate by the federal conservatives, and indeed many of his views — such as pride in our history and refusing to describe the entire country as systematically racist — are now openly discussed by many politicians. Times change.

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In 2022, John Rustad, a four-term BC Liberal MLA and former minister of multiple portfolios, stepped out of line on climate change. The result was a swift ejection from caucus by Falcon, the BC Liberals’ new leader. Rustad did not speak for the BC Liberal caucus on climate change, which the party regarded as a great peril, Falcon said. One year later Rustad became the BC Conservative leader.

Climate change may well continue to be a peril, but few see it as a top priority now that housing and the cost of living have overtaken the electorate’s consciousness. Times change.

Finally, in 2023 came the BC Liberals’ rebrand to BC United. There was a time when a rebrand away from the “Liberal” name affiliation that always was an awkward fit may have been a positive. But, after years of ejecting people who stood unequivocally for more conservative values and who represented something different than the NDP, BC United simply became the worst thing a political party can be: meaningless. No message, no clear values, no stances on anything that the public could latch on to. Times had clearly changed.

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B.C. has five months left until the October election. It’s possible BC United could recognize its hopeless situation in that time and submit to a merger with the BC Conservatives, though Friday’s pronouncements by both parties make this a scant possibility. Electorally it makes sense, as together they would surely beat the very confused and flailing NDP.

The key question has always been simple: can BC United, a party which was 189 votes away from winning in 2017 and governed the province for 20 straight years, merge as a junior partner with the BC Conservatives, who until 2024 were a political farce? And, do the BC Conservatives even want a merger, or could they win outright? Though a stunning outcome to contemplate, it is now without question in the cards.

The door to a change of government has been opened by the NDP’s fiscal mismanagement, failed drug policies and preference for virtue signalling over sensible public policy. The public has had enough and is looking for an alternative. It still remains to be seen if they’ll vote for the BC Conservatives or the United Conservatives of B.C. How times have changed.

National Post

Adam Pankratz is a lecturer at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business.

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